Will Shapella Update Affect Ethereum Price? Analysis Sheds Positive Light

The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, called Shapella, scheduled for April 12, has raised many questions in the cryptocurrency community about what it might mean for the second-largest cryptocurrency. There have been suggestions that this update which will enable validators to withdraw their staked ethers (ETH), would negatively impact the coin’s price.  

CryptoQuant’s ETH Analysis – A Ray Of Hope

According to speculations, if holders decide to sell their cryptocurrency holdings for profit, it could lead to a decrease in market demand and a subsequent drop in the prices of Ethereum.

However, despite this potential outcome, CryptoQuant, a company specializing in data analysis, has allayed fears, saying that the selling pressure may not be significant. The company argues that based on its profit and loss analysis, there is likely to be minimal selling pressure on ETH resulting from staking withdrawals after the upgrade.

The company predicts there won’t be significant selling pressure because most ETH staked (9.4 million ETH, equivalent to 52% of the total) is currently at a loss. On the other hand, the company notes that the average depositor in the largest pools is also experiencing losses.

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In this context, it’s unlikely that these market participants would sell their ETH at the current price and make a profit or recover their entire investment. This is because they invested in these activities when the cryptocurrency was trading at a higher value than it is currently. According to CoinMarketCap, the current price of ETH is around $1,800.

Furthermore, the company highlights that staked ETH, which is currently in profit, is generating a yield of up to 30% or less, which they consider relatively low compared to the significant profits that the Ethereum market can sometimes provide through its price volatility.

Based on this, CryptoQuant emphasizes that “selling pressure arises when market participants make extreme profits,” which is not currently true for staked ETH. This means there may not be a significant drop in ETH’s price due to the Shapella update.

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Ethereum Price Exceeds $1,900, Its Highest In 8 Months 

On Wednesday, April 5, 2023, the price of ether (ETH), the cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, rose above $1,900, a level it had not reached in 8 months. The last time ETH hit this price point was August 15, 2022. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in the market, has not seen a similar increase. According to TradingView, BTC’s price briefly touched $29,000 twice during the last two weeks of March 2023.

The fact that ETH is experiencing an increase while BTC does not suggests that the current price increase of ETH is not driven by BTC’s movement, which is typically the case. Instead, it is driven by the internal Ethereum market. According to analyst Miles Deutscher, this is because investors are showing interest in ETH in anticipation of the upcoming Shanghai (Shapella) update.

Shapella represents a significant change that Ethereum will implement on its network on April 12, enabling the withdrawal of staked funds. Therefore, the anticipation of this event may have contributed to the recent increase in the price of ETH. Furthermore, various players in the industry, including Binance US and Huobi exchanges, have taken the initiative to remind the public about the upcoming update this week.

Featured image from istock.com, chart from Tradingview.com.