When Will Bitcoin Top? Historical Pattern May Provide Hints

On-chain data reveals the Bitcoin HODLers are participating in major selling. Here’s how many months the past two bull runs took to top after this.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Now Selling 500,000 BTC Per Month

As explained in a post on X by CryptoVizArt, a senior researcher at the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the BTC long-term holders have been selling recently, regardless of how bullish the mood around the market has been.

The “long-term holders” (LTHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago. These holders are known to display a strong resolve, as they don’t sell that often, despite whatever may be going on in the wider market.

Because of this strength, they are popularly known as the “diamond hands” of the sector. Since it’s uncommon to see the LTHs selling, the times that they do participate in distribution can be worth paying attention to, especially if the selloff is of any significant degree.

One way to track the behavior of these HODLers is through the “net position change” metric, which keeps track of the net amount of BTC that entered into or exited out of the wallets of these investors over the past 30 days.

Below is a chart shared by the analyst that displays the trend in this indicator for the LTHs over the past few years:

The value of the metric appears to have been deep red in recent days | Source: @CryptoVizArt on X

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH net position change has been negative recently. This would imply that coins have been leaving the addresses of these HODLers.

This selling from the cohort has come as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through a sharp rally and has achieved fresh all-time highs (ATHs). From the chart, it’s visible that a trend like this also played out during the last two major bull runs.

In the recent distribution, the LTHs have been making net outflows at the rate of 490,000 to 520,000 BTC per month. As the Glassnode researcher has highlighted in the chart, the previous bull runs took around 4 to 5 months to top out after the LTH net position change hit such red levels.

It’s possible that if a similar pattern follows in the current bull run as well, a peak may be encountered in the next 4-5 months. Something that’s different this time around, though, is the presence of the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) turned into an ETF with the US SEC approval in January and since then, the fund has been observing major outflows. The coins held by GBTC fall inside the LTH range, so selling of them is naturally being counted under the LTH net position change.

As the analyst has noted, GBTC monthly outflows have ranged from around 90,000 to 100,000 BTC, which means that they have made up for about 20% of the recent LTH distribution.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had surged beyond the $71,000 level earlier, but the original digital asset has seen a plunge over the past day that has now taken it to $69,700.

Looks like the price of the asset has plummeted over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Bastian Riccardi on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com