Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to unemployment data

Quick Take

• The U.S. unemployment rate moves down to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
• Payroll data came in at 253,000, with an expectancy of 185,000.
• The market is currently pricing in a pause, but 25bps was not considered before today; now, there is a 10% chance.
• This would take the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50

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