Ethereum ETFs Dream Wanes: Approval Odds Drop Significantly To 35%

Forecasts of approval of the much-anticipated Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are dwindling as top market analysts and experts express doubts about its possibility, citing a significant drop in approval odds over time.

Ethereum ETFs Approval Odds Fall to 35%

On Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF expert Eric Balchunas reported that the Ethereum spot ETF approval odds have plummeted immensely in the past few months. Eric Balchunas took to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share the update with the cryptocurrency community.

According to the expert, we now have only a “35% chance of getting the ETH ETFs approved” by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by the anticipated May deadline predicted by Standard Chartered.

Balchunas initially estimated a 70% possibility of approval of the ETFs by May, so this marks a huge departure from his forecasts from January. The Bloomberg analyst clearly noted that there are several reasons, in their opinion, why the Commission ought to approve the spot ETFs. 

However, this time, he says, “none of the sources or indicators that gave them a bullish 2.5-month outlook” for Bitcoin Spot ETFs are present at the moment. This simply demonstrates the uncertainty around the products in the broader crypto landscape.

Nevertheless, Balchunas has urged the community not to lose hope completely as there is a chance that Ethereum ETFs might be approved since a 35% odd is not 0%, suggesting a likelihood of approval happening in the long term.

Balchunas’s post came in response to Fox Journalist Eleanor Terret’s post, which shared her insights on the subject. Eleanor Terret drawing attention to Jake Chervinsky’s opinions stated that it aligns with what she “has been hearing” regarding the approvals.

Nonetheless, it does not imply that the products will not be accepted within the year. She further highlighted that there has not been “any significant interaction from SEC officials” regarding applications, and “the May deadline is rapidly approaching.” Terret has expressed some optimism about the approval, saying that “the agency might take a nosedive on their engagement in April or May.”

ETH Spot ETFs Cycle Is Different From BTC Spot ETFs

Another Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, has also shared his opinions on the matter. Adding to Eric Balchunas’s insights, Seyffart pointed out that the “Ethereum ETF cycle presently seems to be the reverse of the Bitcoin ETF approval probabilities.”

Seyffart underscored how “his optimism decreases as they observe and hear more, and as they do not observe and hear more.” According to Seyffart, the deadline for approval is just less than “73 days away,” and it seems like no progress has been made.

It is noteworthy that the World’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, has also confirmed the decline in acceptance odds. Data from the platform shows that Ethereum ETF odds are currently sitting at 36%.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com