Dan Dolev sees Coinbase missing Q3 revenue estimates by 10%

• Mizuho analyst forecasts up to $652 million in revenue for Coinbase in Q3.
• Dan Dolev continues to see sharp downside in the crypto stock to $27.
• Coinbase shares are already down roughly 35% versus their YTD high.

Mizuho lowered its quarterly revenue estimate for Coinbase Global Inc on Wednesday. Its shares are down 1.0% at writing.

Dan Dolev shares his view on Coinbase

Dan Dolev now expects the crypto exchange to report revenue about 7.0% below his previous forecast for the third quarter. On Wednesday, he said in a research note to clients:

We expect dwindling volumes combined with an expected drought in retail trading to meaningfully weigh on 3Q revenue.

Note that Bitcoin trading volatility tanked to the level last seen over four years ago in August.

The Mizuho analyst is, therefore, convinced that the Nasdaq-listed firm will come in about 10% shy of consensus estimate for revenue in its Q3. Coinbase shares are currently down 35% versus their year-to-date high.

Coinbase shares have downside to $27

Dan Dolev now forecasts Coinbase to report revenue in the range of $609 million to $652 million in its third financial quarter.

That’s driven from a sharp decline in the platform’s average daily trading volume that stood at about $1.0 billion in the second quarter but had crashed to $665 million in September.

The Mizuho analyst, therefore, maintained his “underweight” rating on Coinbase shares this morning. His $27 price target suggests a more than 60% downside from here.

His bearish call on the stock arrives shortly after the crypto exchange said it had secured AML or Anti-Money Laundering registration with the Bank of Spain (find out more). Coinbase is the globally the largest holder of Bitcoin as per Arkham.