Bitcoin Miner Revenue Drops To Yearly Lows: Will They Capitulate?

Bitcoin miners are beginning to feel the adverse effects of the latest halving, with industry revenues at their lowest point since early 2023.

The tighter profit margins raise questions about which industry firms can stay afloat during Bitcoin’s next halving epoch, as well as how Bitcoin’s market price might be impacted.

Steep Decline In Miner Revenue

According to data shared by on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Puell Multiple” plummeted sharply immediately after the halving between April 19 and April 20.

The Puell Multiple is a ratio that compares the value of daily BTC issuance in USD terms to the 365-day moving average of that same metric. Since the number of new BTC issued to miners has fallen from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block, the Puell multiple has declined.

Glassnode Academy states that a high Puell multiple indicates relatively high miner profitability, meaning miners are more incentivized to liquidate their coins. Conversely, a low multiple means less competitive miners are forced to turn off their rigs, making remaining miners more profitable, and allowing them to sell fewer coins to cover their operations.

As of April 28, the multiple stood at just 0.73, much below its 365-day simple-moving-average of 1.43. In USD terms, daily miner revenue

“Now they have two options: 1. Capitulation, or 2. Waiting for a rise in $BTC price,” wrote CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju to Twitter on Tuesday. “There are no signs of capitulation for now.”

CryptoQuant’s mining dashboard shows that miner BTC flows to OTC desks and exchanges remain relatively low, meaning they aren’t keen on selling their BTC.

The Impact Of Runes

Though miner revenues are now more suppressed, the day of the halving itself was an unusually profitable day for miners, netting $106 million in revenue compared to ~$68 million in previous days.

The temporary profit boost was largely thanks to the simultaneous launch of Runes, a new protocol standard for minting tokens on Bitcoin crafted by Ordinals creator Casey Rordamor.

In a frenzy to mint new tokens. Runes users drove Bitcoin network fees to over $100 per transaction, allowing miners to net several blocks with over 30 BTC in fee revenue. Fees have since dropped to normal levels, and miner revenue has declined to $28.5 million per day.