Bitcoin Eyes July Rebound Despite Mt. Gox Repayment

• Data from Coinglass suggest that Bitcoin could experience a strong rebound driven by historical patterns.
• The upcoming Mt. Gox repayments and the substantial sale of Bitcoin by the German government significantly threaten BTC’s price in July.

Struggling through a tedious performance in June, Bitcoin showcased unsatisfactory activity, with BTC plummeting almost 7%. 

June’s performance has left a sense of mixed optimism among investors and analysts, unresolved on whether BTC’s price will come out strong or if the struggle will persist. 

Nevertheless, according to historical data from Coinglass, whenever Bitcoin experiences a slump in June, it always experiences a significant rebound of up to 7.42% in the following month. 

Importantly, in the present case, according to Coinglass, tracking BTC returns from 2013, June has historically been a down month for Bitcoin, averaging a slump of 0.35%. However, it always rebounds strongly.

In support of this narrative, Murad, a renowned meme coin analyst, came out strong to his more than 100,000 followers on the X app, pinpointing Bitcoin’s stellar performance in the first few weeks of July for the past six years. Murad highlighted that Bitcoin has gained at least 28% in the first few weeks of every July for the past six years, suggesting a solid historical trend. 

Despite the historical bullish outlook, several analysts have taken a cautious approach, warning that July could be a harder month. One major hurdle that could see Bitcoin coming to grips with a struggling period is the upcoming Mt.Gox repayment. The Bitcoin exchange repayment is expected to start in the first week of July, and around $8.5 billion in Bitcoin will be returned to creditors. 

However, some analysts have suggested that the impact might not be as severe as anticipated, with only $4 billion likely to hit the market. 

The other serious hurdle, as earlier reported on Crypto News Flash, is the substantial sale of BTC by the German government. A crypto wallet labeled “German Government (BKA, On June 25, on-chain intelligence provider Arkham Intelligence spotlighted the transfer of 400 BTC from the wallet, moved in a two-part transaction to crypto exchanges Coinbase and Kraken. The transaction, worth approximately $24.4 million at current prices, occurred around 07:38 UTC. It was followed by another 500 BTC transfer, valued at $30.5 million, to an unnamed address.

Recent market conditions have had a huge impact on social media platforms. Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment indicates a decline in positive remarks about BTC, suggesting a potential market bottom. Since the Bitcoin halving in April, which led to reduced mining rewards, Bitcoin miners have been selling heavily to cover operational costs.

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo observed that price recovery typically follows “weak miners dying off and the hash rate recovering.” This process has been prolonged in 2024, taking 61 days compared to 24 days in 2017 and eight days in 2021.

While historical events and decreasing miner selling pressure give space for optimism, the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment and Germany’s substantial sale pose challenges for Bitcoin in July. Nevertheless, Bitcoin could still see a strong performance this month if historical patterns repeat. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is exchanging hands at $62,951.13, marking a 2.19% surge in the last 24 hours.

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