Bitcoin ($BTC) almost at $100,000 as Gary Gensler reign nears end

As Bitcoin ($BTC) approaches $100,000, Gary Gensler, chairman of the SEC, and long time opposer of all things crypto, has decided to step down when Donald Trump takes over the U.S. presidency in January. Is operation Chokepoint 2.0 finally at an end?

High hopes when Gensler became SEC chairman

When Gary Gensler was installed as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in April 2021, many believed that he would be good for the crypto industry, given that he had taught classes on Blockchain technology and digital currencies at MIT.

However, any sense that Gensler’s reign as the Head of the SEC would be benign, changed rather quickly when he started to show a hostile stance towards crypto, which only became more so as his tenure continued. 

A policy of ruling by enforcement actions

Gensler alienated the whole industry by serving Wells notices (notice of an enforcement action) on some of the top crypto exchanges, including Kraken, Paxos, Binance, and Coinbase, claiming that they had failed to register with the SEC and that they were illegally dealing in unregistered securities.

Some of the exchanges under attack countered that there was no actual process in existence that would even allow them to register, and any exchanges that did try to open up a dialogue with the SEC were served with a Wells notice anyway.

SEC commissioner scathing of her own agency

Hester Peirce, currently serving as one of the five SEC commissioners, spoke out against her own agency on several occasions, saying that it was “hostile to crypto” and accused it of being “lazy and paternalistic”, saying that it could not be bothered to develop a “workable process” for crypto companies that were trying to comply.

Peirce accused the SEC of using enforcement as its primary go-to, when she said:

“​​Today’s Commission tells entrepreneurs trying to do new things in our markets to come in and register. When entrepreneurs find they cannot, the Commission dismisses the possibility of making practical adjustments to our registration framework to help entrepreneurs register, and instead rewards their good faith with an enforcement action. Today’s Commission treats the notice-and-comment rulemaking process not as a conversation, but as a threat.”

Now that Gensler’s reign as chairman of the SEC is coming to an end, it will be up to the incoming republican administration to decide who will replace him. It is very likely that the new chair of the SEC will work towards regulations that will encourage, rather than smother, the innovation coming out of the crypto sector.

$BTC enters overbought territory in short time frame

Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart for $BTC shows that the rise out of the ascending triangle is still continuing. It can be seen just how near the price is to the hugely psychological $100,000 level.

At the bottom of the chart is the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), which is showing that an overbought condition has been reached. That said, it can be observed how this indicator reached almost 90.00 as the $BTC price hit the ascending trendline from the tops of the last bull market.

This could mean that there is still some buying to go. In fact, the indicator line will need to surpass this level if it is to nullify bearish divergence. As a point of concern, this is also the case on the much more important higher time frames.

$BTC price surge has to continue if bearish divergence is to be avoided

Source: TradingView

For example, on the weekly time frame, price action is going up, but as things stand on the RSI, there is still a downwards inclination. In order to cancel out bearish divergence here, the indicator on the RSI needs to climb above a level of 88.40.

It can be observed back in the last bull market in 2021 how bearish divergence eventually pulled Bitcoin into a bear market. Any rolling over of the RSI indicator before it gets above 88.40 should be treated as a huge cautionary signal.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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