Analysts Split on Ethereum ETF Timeline Post-Bitcoin Approval

• Some experts believe that an Ethereum ETF will be approved in May when the deadline for some applicants hits, but others remain pessimistic and believe the approval could be at least two years away.
• American investment bank TD Cowen says that Ether ETFs are unlikely to debut before 2027 as Gary Gensler wants to study BTC ETFs first and apply lessons learned.

Bitcoin spot ETFs are here, and they are living up to the hype. Fidelity and Blackrock have separated themselves from the pack as the industry leaders, attracting $5 billion between them. The market is shifting to the next big question—when will we get Ether spot ETFs? Experts remain divided on when Gary Gensler could give his nod, with some saying it could be in May as others say we’re at least three years away.

The SEC postponed the deadline for a batch of ETH ETF applications in January, which included Grayscale and BlackRock. This move only fueled the speculation that has gripped the market, with crypto and Wall Street experts all trying to predict when Gensler will give the green light.

According to TD Cowen, Ethereum investors should not hold their breath as the ETF could take more than three years to get to the market. In a note, analysts from the New York-based bank, which holds $15 billion in assets under management, noted that Gensler is unlikely to approve two crypto spot ETFs in one year. He likely wants to use the Bitcoin ETFs to learn before moving on to Ethereum.

TD Cowen is the financial services arm of TD Securities, a Canadian financial services group.

In the note, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg noted:

We still believe that action is unlikely until late 2025 or early 2026 as we believe SEC Chair Gensler wants to apply what is learned from the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs to spot Ethereum ETFs.

When Will the SEC Approve Ethereum ETFs?

In the US, an ETF approval isn’t merely a financial and economic decision. Several other considerations must be made, and one of these is politics, TD Cowen added. The country is more polarized than ever, with most decisions being made along party lines.

Take the CBDC—while Democrats have been supportive, Republicans have unanimously rejected it. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even enacted a law banning the use of a digital dollar in the state, even if the federal government were to jump on the CBDC bandwagon.

Crypto ETFs are no different, according to the investment bank. The note stated:

We believe there is no upside for SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve a spot Ethereum ETF given how upset progressive Democrats were over the agency’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month.

Despite TD Cowen’s skepticism, some experts believe an Ethereum ETF could be coming this year. As CNF reported, UK banking giant Standard Chartered believes the approval will be on May 23rd.