Bitwise CIO: US election is going to be a speed bump or wind gust for crypto

• Bitcoin’s value has risen over 400% between 2020 and 2024
• Solana has increased in value by nearly 4,500% from $1.49 to around $166 in four years
• This trajectory of positivity will continue beyond the 2024 US elections, according to Matt Hougan

Bitwise’s CIO has said while Washington can alter the trajectory of the crypto market by speeding things up or slowing them down, it can’t stop it.

In his latest client memo, Matt Hougan wrote about crypto in an election year, claiming that crypto has already won, regardless of who becomes the next President of the United States.

Comparing the state of the crypto market from November 2020 to November 2024, Hougan questioned whether things are better or worse since the last time Americans went to the polls.

Despite several lawsuits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – notably against Binance, Coinbase, Cumberland DRW, Kraken, and Ripple – the crypto industry has made significant progress.

A four-year difference

Looking between the two US elections, Hougan points out that Bitcoin was trading at $13,677 in November 2020. Fast-forward to November 2024 and Bitcoin is valued at around $69,492, indicating a 408% change.

Ethereum has also seen a positive increase from its humble $388 in 2020 to its now $2,492 in the runup to the 2024 US election. However, it’s Solana that has seen a major increase in price rising nearly 11,000% from $1.49 in 2020 to around $166 in 2024.

Turning to assets under management (AUM), Hougan shows that stablecoin AUM rose from $3.87 billion in November 2020 to $177.83 billion in November 2024, representing a near 4,500% change.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) also experienced a healthy boost, jumping from $9.57 billion in 2020 to $139.3 billion in 2024.

“We focus so much in crypto on the moment-by-moment movement of prices that we often lose sight of the long-term trends,” Hougan wrote. “The presidential election provides a nice opportunity to step back and see how far we’ve come.”

What next?

So much has already happened in the crypto market over four years, but will that continue as the market goes beyond the 2024 US election?

In Hougan’s view, the answer is yes. Regardless of who becomes the next POTUS, Hougan said – among other things – that spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows will continue, stablecoins will continue to grow, Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets, blockchains will get faster and cheaper, and real-world applications such as Polymarket will gain mainstream adoption.

“What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term,” said Hougan. “But as I see it, over the long term Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train.”