Why is crypto rising today? And why do I think it could be short-lived?

I almost forgot what it was like to see a big green candle on a cryptocurrency chart. Today, however, that is exactly what we have, as magic Internet money is climbing sharply upward.

Bitcoin is now trading at $20,600, above the psychologically important number of $20,000, while Ethereum has climbed north of $1,500 for the first time in a month. Of course, the below graph plotting the one-year returns shows that this is a drop in the ocean compared to the fall the market has experienced. Still, baby steps?

Why is crypto going up?

What is causing the rise? Well, while I need to caveat that my word should be taken with a pinch of salt given I published analysis last week warning that Bitcoin could soon nuke downwards, only to see it climb up, this is simply a continuation of what has been happening all year – crypto being led by macro.

The S&P 500 is up 8% from its October 12^th low, quite a staggering rise in such a short time period compared to its normally low volatility. This follows – you guessed it – more optimistic thoughts that the Federal Reserve will rein in its interest rate hikes quicker than otherwise expected, following soft economic data.

On-chain liquidations cross $1 billion

It’s always interesting to jump on-chain amid these kinds of days. Indeed, it didn’t disappoint, with a daunting $1.1 billion of liquidations over the last 24 hours, as market participants got caught offside by the big moves – most of whom had shorted the market.

The crypto market cap is also close to another milestone, just shy of taking back the $1 trillion market cap following a 7% rise over the last day.

What will happen going forward?

Nonetheless, as I warned last week, I would still be very wary here of crypto. The world is ina precarious spot, with sentiment seemingly as low as it has been since 2008. Macro is defining everything, and crypto is merely the tail on the dog.

These are small but cautious moves by the stock market, as investors continue to try second guess the Fed. The economy overall is sensitive and hurting, with cost of living still a massive problem, a war in Ukraine, as well as the US midterms creeping closer which could offer fresh volatility.

It is not hard to imagine crypto taking a hard hit sometime soon as a macro headline comes out showing investors had become too confident in a bounceback. There are simply too many variables out there with immense downside to have any real conviction in this entry point.

Like I keep repeating, short-term it is anyone’s guess. Treat this bounce with caution. But then again, I have warned of this for a while, so who am I?

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